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Youth Turnout Up Sharply in Key Super Tuesday States

Youth Vote Analysis Included, Young Voters Play Central Role in Primary Wins

Youth turnout surged in key primary states last night, continuing a striking trend started in the first presidential contests of 2008.

“In all the noise of last night’s election, one message was heard loud and clear,” said Sujatha Jahagirdar Program Director with the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project.  “Young people are tuning in and turning out.” 

An analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) of available exit poll and turnout data found that youth turnout spiked sharply in key primary contests from Missouri to Connecticut to California.  Turnout of young voters more than doubled in Massachusetts, tripled in Georgia and more than quadrupled in Tennessee. 

In many cases, this increased turnout played a key role in shaping victories on both sides of the aisle. In Missouri, for example, Senator Obama won more than 56,000 votes from young people (18-29 year olds) – more than five times his margin of victory in the state. 

An early Student PIRG analysis of available data for thirteen ‘Super Tuesday’ states found that the youth vote played a key role on February 5^th.    In eleven of fourteen states with available exit poll data, the winning Republican contender won the youth vote.   In all states won by Senator Barack Obama, the Illinois legislator won the youth vote.  In the majority of states won by Senator Hillary Clinton, the New York legislator received a significant portion of the youth vote, winning the demographic outright in Massachusetts, Arkansas and California.   

 

Table 1. Share of Youth Vote (18-29 year olds) Won by Democratic Candidates in Select ‘Super Tuesday’ States

 

State with Available Exit Poll Data and  Democratic Winner	Share of Democratic  Youth Vote
Alabama – Obama	Obama – 64% Clinton – 32%
Arizona – Clinton	Clinton – 37% Obama – 59%
Arkansas – Clinton	Clinton – 56% Obama – 43%
California – Clinton	Clinton – 51% Obama – 47%
Connecticut - Obama	Obama – 58% Clinton 39%
Georgia – Obama	Obama – 75% Clinton – 23%
Illinois – Obama	Obama – 69% Clinton – 29%
Massachusetts - Clinton	Clinton – 49% Obama 48%
Missouri – Obama	Obama – 65% Clinton – 30%
New Jersey – Clinton	Clinton – 39% Obama – 59%
New York – Clinton	Clinton – 43% Obama 56%
Tennessee – Clinton	Clinton – 44% Obama – 53%
Utah – Obama	Obama – 70% Clinton – 25%

 

Source: CNN.com

 

Table 2.  Share of Youth Vote (18-29 year olds) Won by Republican Candidates in Select ‘Super Tuesday’ States

 

State with Available Exit Poll Data and Winning Candidate	Share of Youth Vote won by Governor Mike Huckabee	Share of Youth Vote won by Senator John McCain	Share of Youth Vote won by Governor Mitt Romney
Alabama – Huckabee	51%	22%	24%
Arizona – McCain	15%	32%	43%
Arkansas – Huckabee	68%	16%	7%
California – McCain	22%	34%	31%
Connecticut – McCain	11%	51%	9%
Georgia – Huckabee	43%	23%	24%
Illinois – McCain	28%	30%	22%
Massachusetts – Romney	4%	36%	52%
Missouri – McCain	43%	27%	18%
New Jersey – McCain	8%	46%	19%
New York – McCain	15%	43%	21%
Oklahoma - McCain	38%	26%	28%
Tennessee – Huckabee	38%	25%	15%
Utah – Romney	2%	6%	88%

 

Source: CNN.com

 

Table 3: Approximate Youth Turnout in Select ‘Super Tuesday’ States

 

State	Approximate Youth Turnout in  2000	Approximate Youth Turnout in 2008	Youth Turnout Rate in 2000	Youth Turnout Rate in 2008
California	574,807	852,459	13%	17%
Connecticut	21,394	51,436	7%	12%
Georgia	92,019	281,724	7%	21%
Massachusetts	90,986	231,022	11%	25%
Missouri	71,430	190,863	7%	21%
Oklahoma	17,975	82,609	4%	14%
Tennessee	35,127	139,831	4%	15%

 

Source:CIRCLE

 

Since April 2007, the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project has worked across the nation to mobilize young voters around the first presidential contests of this election cycle.  Through our What’s Your Plan? campaign, hundreds of student volunteers have appeared at fundraisers, photo-ops and town hall meetings to ask the candidates to engage young people in the issues we care about – like global warming, college affordability, financial security and healthcare.   Since the launch of the campaign, we have talked to all the major candidates, face to face, more than 100 times.

 

In the months leading up to the first presidential contests, student leaders trained by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project have also worked feverishly on college campuses to mobilize youth turnout.  From texting their peers to organizing campus ‘get out the vote’ carnivals; from organizing Facebook groups to holding information forms on campuses, youth organizers mobilized thousands of young voters to the polls in key primary states.  

 

On the eve of the election, the Student PIRGs, along with Credo Mobile and the One Campaign also sent 20,000 young voters in ‘Super Tuesday’ states a text message reminder to vote the next day.  A September study released by the Student PIRGs and Credo Mobile found that such reminders can increase youth turnout significantly.

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The Student PIRGs are independent state-based student organizations that work to solve public interest problems related to the environment, consumer protection, and government reform.

The Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project is the nation’s largest youth voter mobilization program.  Since 2004, we have registered more than 600,000 young people and made more than 650,000 peer to peer voter turnout contacts to get young people to the polls on Election Day. Due in large part to our efforts, the youth vote increased by 4.3 million votes, or 9% in 2004 and an analysis of our work in 2006 found that in the student dense precincts in which we worked with our allies, youth voter turnout increased on average by 157%.