Youth Vote Boosted By Turnout Campaigns, Says New Study
Timing, Frequency of Activity Yields Voter Participation Increases
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 23, 2007
CONTACT: Dave Rosenfeld, daver@newvotersproject.org
On
the heels of the most successful youth voter mobilization efforts ever
in a midterm election, the Student Public Interest Research Groups’
(PIRG) New Voters Project is releasing a new analysis of its 2004
efforts to boost youth turnout, and of the particular techniques that
contributed to the project’s success. The study offers new insights
for those who wish to mobilize the increasingly valuable votes of the
18-24 year old demographic.
The study, conducted by the research
firm Polimetrix, examined a sampling of individuals who the Student
PIRGs’ New Voters Project registered to vote in 2004 in six states:
Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Oregon. The report
looked at the overall effectiveness of the Student PIRGs’ New Voters
Project in increasing youth voter turnout, as well as the extent to
which certain kinds of tactics affected an individual’s likelihood to
vote.
In 2004, the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project ran the
nation’s largest nonpartisan youth voter mobilization campaign in a
presidential election, registering over a half a million 18-30 year
olds to vote in 23 states and making over 500,000 personalized voter
reminders before the polls closed.
In Iowa, where the study used the most refined data and methodology, young people contacted by the New Voters Project turned out at a rate 13 percentage points higher
than a group of demographically similar individuals who also registered
to vote within six months of the election. For all six states,
individuals both registered and contacted by the New Voters Project
turned out at a rate of 86.3%. People who were registered (but not
contacted) by the New Voters Project turned out at a rate of 77.0%,
while those contacted (but not registered) by the New Voters Project
turned out at a rate of 76.9%. These are all sharp increases from the
baseline “not registered and not contacted” group, which turned out at
a 59.5% rate.
Among the report’s other findings:
• Peer-to-peer voter registration drives can have a significant impact.
Not only does an aggressive voter registration drive increase the pool
of eligible voters; by extension, it also increases turnout. The study
revealed that young people who were registered to vote by the Student
PIRGs’ New Voters Project in Iowa were 5.9 percentage points more
likely to vote than a similar control group of individuals who
registered to vote through other means. This is a particularly
significant finding, because while planning the 2004 campaign, it was
assumed that young people registered by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters
Project, many of whom might not have otherwise registered, would be
less likely to follow through and vote. Yet the study reveals that
young people registered by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project were
actually more likely to vote than their peers who were registered by
other means.
• Multiple peer-to-peer contact increases an individual’s likelihood to vote.
Consistent with other research, recent registrants contacted at least
once by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project in Iowa were 13
percentage points more likely to vote than a demographically similar
control group. Furthermore, contacting voters multiple times increases
an individual’s likelihood to vote – for example, in this study,
individuals in the six states who were contacted at least three times
turned out at a rate of 83.4 percent, compared to a 76.4 percent rate
among those contacted just once. Additionally, the study found that
relatively few additional gains in turnout were made after the third
contact.
• Contacts close to Election Day matter most.
Individuals contacted in the 72 hours before the close of polls turned
out at a rate of 81 to 85 percent (depending on the timing of contact)
versus 79 percent for those individuals last contacted four to eight
days beforehand, and 69 percent for those last contacted nine or more
days beforehand. While the study finds that timing contacts close to
Election Day can boost turnout, it also demonstrates that earlier
contacts (for example, in the week before election day) can make a
greater difference in states with early voting or vote-by-mail.
The
Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project utilizes many of the same techniques
that political campaigns use for older voters, including:
• Peer-to-peer approach. Young people drive local campaigns, providing the leadership and manpower to reach out to their peers.
• Personalized interactions.
When both registering and reminding voters, emphasis is placed on
person-to-person contact over mass advertising or other wholesale forms
of visibility, such as mail or Internet.
• Concentrated voter registration drives. To help bring more highly mobile youth into the electorate, voter registration drives are held close to the deadlines.
• Multiple voter contact tactics.
Emphasis is placed on using multiple voter contact tactics, including
phone calls, canvassing, and approaching young people on campus or on
busy street corners.
• Multiple voter contacts.
We begin making voter contacts starting 1-2 weeks before Election Day,
continuing until the polls close, with the goal of contacting
individuals at least two times before Election Day.
“Getting
young people to vote is not rocket science,” said Dave Rosenfeld,
National Program Director for the Student PIRGs. “They respond to the
same kinds of techniques that most competent political campaigns use.”
This
new study comes on the heels of the Student PIRGs’ successful 20-state
midterm election youth voter campaign in 2006, which registered 75,000
new voters and made 95,000 personalized voter reminders, including
50,000 in the 72 hours before the polls closed. An analysis conducted
by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and
Engagement (CIRCLE) shortly after the election on a sample of
youth-dense precincts targeted by the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project
found that voter turnout doubled (157% increase) over the 2002
election, six times the national average for young adults (25%).
The report is available for download here.
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The
Student Public Interest Research Groups (PIRGs) are non-partisan,
student directed, state-based organizations that work to solve public
interest problems related to the environment, consumer protection, and
government reform. For 30 years, students involved with PIRG chapters
on college campuses have had a chance to face up to society's big
problems, take action, and win concrete changes that improve the
quality of our lives. The goal of the Student PIRGs’ New Voters Project
is to increase youth electoral participation and show politicians and
opinion leaders that young voters are an important constituency,
deserving and demanding of their attention. www.studentpirgs.org